Thursday evening is approaching, which means all the speculation and mock drafts will finally turn into real players being selected to real teams. Each NFL Draft brings hope to all 32 teams, but especially those who had a poor season the year prior. Overall the concept is simple: the teams improve their rosters by adding the most talented college players. However it's not as simple as it seems, as a lot of strategy and intricacies come into play. This post will aim to take a closer look at this event that determines the future success of NFL teams. We will cover everything from eligibility to selection order to trades to how prospects are evaluated to ground rules, and more.
When is it?
The draft almost always takes place on the last Thursday through Saturday in April. Round 1 is held Thursday evening, Rounds 2 and 3 take place the following afternoon/evening, and then the draft concludes with the last 4 rounds on Saturday.
Who is eligible to be drafted?
The main criteria is you have to have been enrolled at college for at least 3 years. That doesn't necessarily mean you have to be a junior, you could be a red shirt sophomore (a player who sat out 1 year and then played for 2). There is a deadline in January for underclassmen to declare for the NFL draft, if they choose to do this they forego their remaining college eligibility (i.e. there's no turning back, even if they aren't drafted).
Making the NFL is a dream come true for many of these kids. Only 1 in 17 high school players will even play college football. From that group roughly 1 in 50 will be drafted by an NFL team. So if we do the math only the best 2% of college football players will be drafted and only 9 out of every 10,000 high school players will be good enough to be drafted. It is an incredible honor and one that comes with an incredible paycheck too. Speaking of compensation, the higher the round you are selected, the higher pay you receive in your rookie contract.
How is the order determined?
It's the reverse order of where the NFL teams finished the season prior. So the team with the worst record (the Arizona Cardinals) goes first and the Super Bowl Champion (New England Patriots) goes 32nd. There are rules to break ties between teams with the same record. However these teams will "cycle" picks each round. For example, the Jets, 49ers, and Raiders all finished 4-12. In round 1, it was determined via tiebreaker that the 49ers will pick 2nd, the Jets will pick 3rd, and the Raiders will go 4th. However in round 2, the Jets will get the 34th, the Raiders will get the 35th, and the 49ers will cycle back to 36th. Then in round 3, the Raiders will get the 66th, the 49ers will get the 67th, and the Jets will cycle back to the 68th.
The first 20 picks will be strictly inverse order. From there it's about how far you went in the playoffs in conjunction with record. For example, the Eagles went 9-7 but made the divisional round, while the Texans went 11-5 but lost in the wild card round. Thus the Texans, despite having the better record, actually pick ahead of the Eagles since they were eliminated a round earlier. Teams eliminated in the same round then are sorted by record. For example, lets take all 4 teams eliminated in the wild card round: Seahawks (10-6), Ravens (10-6), Texans (11-5), and Bears (12-4). It was determined via tiebreaker that the Seahawks would pick ahead of the Ravens. So these picks will then go Seahawks at 21, Ravens at 22, Texans at 23, and Bears at 24. The Seahawks and Ravens will then go back and forth cycling picks in the following rounds.
Is the Draft the only way teams rebuild their rosters?
No, there are 3. Free agency, trades, and the draft. We will summarize each.
A player becomes a free agent when his contract expires and he needs a new one. Hypothetical example: I'm drafted by the Browns and signed to a 4 year contract. I play my 4 years and then the Bucs offer me 4 more years and more money so I go sign with them.
A trade happens when teams exchange players. Example: I'm a back up quarterback for the Browns but I'm probably good enough to be the starter elsewhere. The Browns also need help at wide receiver. Lets say Gabe is one of many good wide receivers for the Dolphins, who need a quarterback. The Browns trade me to the Dolphins for Gabe, helping each team solve its problem.
The draft is being explained via this article, HOWEVER it should be noted that draft picks can be traded and players and picks can also be exchanged. Let's start with an example of picks being traded. The Bucs have the 5th pick, but wish to gain more draft picks. The Redskins pick 15th, but desperately need a quarterback before the good ones are all taken. The Redskins offer the Bucs the following trade:
Redskins get: 5th overall pick from Bucs
Bucs get: Redskins 15th overall pick, Redskins 2nd round pick (#46 overall), and Redskins 6th round pick (#206 overall).
Redskins get: 5th overall pick from Bucs
Bucs get: Redskins 15th overall pick, Redskins 2nd round pick (#46 overall), and Redskins 6th round pick (#206 overall).
So to recap, the Redskins jump ahead of other QB needy teams to get a better player, but sacrifice picks. The Bucs, who don't need a QB, move back 10 spots but also acquire additional picks.
Lastly, lets take an actual example where players were sold for players and picks. The Giants, desperate to rebuild, were looking to trade away their best player, a wide receiver named Odell Beckham Jr. The Browns were looking to make a splash and add a super talented player. The Giants sent Beckham Jr to the Browns, and received the Browns first round pick, the Browns third round pick, and the Browns starting safety, Jabril Peppers. So the Browns get a ridiculously talented player, but sacrifice a lesser player and 2 picks in the process. The Giants sacrifice their best player, but acquire a first rounder, and a third round pick and young defensive player.
Ground Rules and Actual Draft
The draft begins when the commissioner walks out and announces that the Cardinals are officially "on the clock" (you will hear this term often). What that means is that the Cardinals have 10 minutes to either select a player, or trade away the pick. If they select a player, we move on to the 2nd pick and the 49ers are now "on the clock" and have 10 minutes to make their move. If the Cardinals trade away the pick, whoever receives the pick has the time remaining on the clock to make their selection, or also trade (rare that you would trade for a pick to then trade it away though). I don't think any negative happens if the clock hits zero, I think pretty much it's just a timer to make and announce a decision and keep the draft moving.
Each pick is 10 minutes in round 1, 7 minutes in round 2, 5 minutes in rounds 3-6, and 4 minutes in round 7 (though at this point they're coming in every minute).
Strategy and Evaluating Different Scenarios
To illustrate how wild this can get, lets take a hypothetical but not far fetched situation.
The Bucs have the 5th overall pick but do not need a quarterback and would like more picks, one spot ahead of the Giants who have the 6th overall pick and need a quarterback. There are three other teams who need a quarterback: the Broncos who pick 10th, the Dolphins who pick 13th, and the Redskins who pick 15th.
The Redskins, eager to jump the Giants, Broncos, and Dolphins, offer a kings ransom of picks to trade first rounders with the Bucs.
The Dolphins, also interested in the pick, offer a slightly lesser but still intriguing package to the Bucs.
The Broncos aren't desperate, but do inquire about the Bucs' asking price to jump ahead of the Giants.
The Giants are no dummies themselves, and instead of sitting back and letting someone else jump them and take their desired player, they too make the Bucs a smaller offer to switch spots.
So lets recap as the Bucs now have 5 options:
Option 1: Not trade with anyone, keep the 5th overall pick and draft the best available defensive player.
Option 2: Trade with the Redskins, move back to the 15th pick, but acquire a large quantity of assets.
Option 3: Trade with the Dolphins, move back to the 13th pick. Less assets acquired than the Redskins offer but 2 spots higher than their pick.
Option 4: Trade with the Broncos, still a good collection of assets and the 10th overall pick.
Option 5: Trade the 5th to the Giants and receive the 6th and maybe an additional pick or two. In this scenario the Bucs would get the least number of assets (other than not trading and keeping pick 5) however they would still get their desired player because the Giants would be taking a QB which the Bucs don't need.
All of this has to be resolved in 10 minutes, during which time the Bucs' phones will be ringing non stop and it will be like a fire drill.
One other strategy that gets implemented is teams trying to hide their true intentions. Using this example, lets say the Giants want a quarterback, but want to give other teams the impression that they will wait until pick 17 (the pick they acquired from the Browns) to select one rather than doing it at 6. All month management will tell the media that they are going to wait for a quarterback and take a defensive playmaker at 6. The Dolphins, Redskins, and Broncos are all buying it and thus no one picks up the phone and calls the Bucs. Then boom, the Giants take their quarterback at 6 and leave the others scrambling and wishing they had made a move. This is called putting up a smoke screen.
Best Available vs Filling a Need
One draft philosophy that different people will debate is whether to select based on who the best available player is or based on what the team needs are.
Some would argue that the draft is the time to strengthen your weaknesses, and thus selecting players who are the best at their position, even though they might not be the best available player on the board at the time of the pick.
Others would argue that "filling a need" is too big of a risk and you will make mistakes taking that approach, and that it is safer and more beneficial to take the best prospects, regardless of position.
The truth is most teams probably use a hybrid of the two ideologies. But which way is also up for debate. For example do you take the best players in the early rounds and try to find diamonds in the rough to fill your needs in the late rounds? Or do you address your weaknesses with the best players and then go best available later on in the draft?
Other things taken into account when evaluating a prospect?
Another thing worth pointing out is that on field performance isn't the only thing taken into account when a team decides whether or not to draft a player. We will cover each briefly.
Injury History
Sadly, some of us are more fragile than others. There are guys out there who are top 10 talent when healthy but if they have a previous ACL tear or something serious that either holds them back from being as good as they once were and/or is at risk for re-injury then teams may shy away from picking that individual.
Character
When teams invest in you, they need to trust that you're going to stay out of trouble. Sometimes there are great players who unfortunately aren't great civilians. Some fail drug tests, others get DUIs, and as heartbreaking as it is some of them do not treat women with respect, and I mean this in terms of battery, assault, and sadly also domestic violence. Such events result in suspensions and fines, and these guys are also supposed to be positive role models in the community. Scouts will even go back years into a players social media looking for dirt: did you ever like a racist tweet? did you ever post Instagram photos where you were high?, etc. Teams need to trust you off the field as well as on it.
Coachability/ Team-Building Skills
A big question they're going to ask is "is this player coachable". That means are they filling to put in time and effort to learn from their mentors and reach their full potential. Do they have a high enough IQ to grasp complex concepts? Will they spend late hours studying film? How quickly can they learn a playbook?
Furthermore, do players make their teammates better? Do they build them up or are they condescending? To they put the team first, or themselves? Do they whine or get mopey when their coaches ask them to do something they don't want to or do they say "yes sir" and go get the job done?
The right individual is able to learn and adapt and will recognize there is no "I" in team.
Your Measurements
You can teach a player the game, but you can't teach them some of the God-given abilities like height, a huge frame, blazing speed, etc. If there's a guy who's an average wide receiver, but he's 6'6, 240 pounds of muscle, and has lightning quick speed, I promise there's a place for him on the team. On the contrary, you might have the best technique in the world, but if you're 5'8 and only 180 pounds soaking wet then other more athletic, more physical players will be able to compensate. Even if the 5'8 player is currently better than the 6'6 player, I'm going to draft the 6'6 guy because the sky is the limit with those measurements and metrics.
In Conclusion
Basically, the draft is the biggest non sporting event in sports. Millions of viewers tune in and then scream over how good or bad a selection is. Teams spend months watching college film on potential players, interviewing them, courting them, and timing them with stopwatches and recording their bench press and vertical jump and many other fitness metrics (also nationally televised, also watched by millions). Also no league's draft is more integral than the NFL's: the NBA superstars switch teams way too frequently, the MLB guys go into a minor league system and don't even reach the pros for 3-5 more years, and the NHL falls somewhere in between. Teams win Super Bowls by putting together terrific draft classes and home-growing the talent. The ability of a front office to draft well impacts a team's success not just next year, but for years to come. The future rests on the shoulders of these guys, one player at a time. In that respect the NFL Draft represents new life, every April, and that friends is why we put so much stock into it and why the country goes contagious over it.
